The Day After Update of the U.S. Election
An analysis of the numbers and where things may be going and a call to act upon our better nature, no matter the outcome
An analysis of the numbers and where things may be going and a call to act upon our better nature, no matter the outcome
Note: I wrote this at 9:30 PM Eastern Time, Wednesday, November 4, 2020. I used the Real Clear Politics website for the numbers.
Real Clear Politics count: Biden 243 electoral votes, Trump 214 (270 to win)
They haven’t counted Alaska yet because still only 53 percent counted, but don’t have it listed as a battleground and with Trump up by 30 points, I am going to take the liberty of awarding those three electoral votes to Trump, so:
My Current Score: Biden: 243, Trump: 217.
Uncounted states are: North, Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada or Pennsylvania. According to this article, Trump’s team has already filed suits in Pennsylvania, and there “will likely be similar challenges to ballots in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.” Which is why I’d caution against any media report counting any of these as for either of the candidates. This is going to take a while.
Now, let’s break down the numbers.
Finished Counting, But Very Close
Wisconsin: (10 electoral votes, 100 percent counted), Biden 49.6 to 48.9. Less than 1 percent and that gives Republicans right to call for a recount, which they have.
Georgia: (16 votes, 100 percent), Trump leads 49.8 to Biden 49.0.
North Carolina (15 votes, 100 percent): Trump leads 50.1 to 48.7 percent.
Still Counting And Too Close To Call (When I Wrote This)
Arizona: (84 percent Arizona has 84 percent counted but Biden up 50.7 to 47.9.
Nevada: 75 percent): Biden 49.3 to 48.7.
Pennsylvania: (89 percent): Trump 51.0 to 47.9.
So, at this hour, we can’t say who is the winner and like I said earlier, I think it will be a while and, honestly, have no idea when we’ll know. Remember in 2000 it took until December.
However, let’s play things out based on the results we have now for the fun of it.
Projecting
1) Give Wisconsin to Biden that is 10 votes.
253–217.
2) Arizona to Biden, that’s 11 votes.
264–217.
3) Georgia to Trump, that is 16 votes.
264–233.
4) North Carolina to Trump, that is 15 votes.
So if we do that, it stands at 264–248 for Biden, and leaves Nevada at 6 votes and Pennsylvania at 268. A win in either gives it to Biden, because 270 is the total needed.
I’ve said for a while that my intuition is that this thing ends up being determined by Pennsylvania and I’ll stick with that. However, I also felt that, unlike 2000 when it came down to one state (Florida), this one would be fought out in several states.
None of this is fortunate, in my opinion, but it is expected. And whoever you are cheering for (if you are), don’t despair: Trump seems to have the upper hand in terms of favorable judges in the courts, but the Democrats have the upper hand in terms of spinning media narrative and thus the court of public opinion. Neither can be discounted in swinging this.
The media narratives about who the rightful winner is will be intense. Emotions will be high because both sides feel that loss means a very serious threat to the country. Try not to get too caught up in it. Take breaks if you need them. Your emotional reaction won’t impact the outcome of the election but it could impact your relationships.
On my end, I’ll vow to not let my emotions get in the way of my writing and when I do feel like offering such takes, I’ll be clear they are my opinions. This is my attempt to remember my training as a journalist, despite not being a professional one for a few decades now. I criticize the decline in quality journalism and the rise in partisan reporting a lot, so I want to live up to my standards.
Anyway, hang in there, all. I’ve said for a while now:
These events are more about how we, as individuals, respond than anything else. We determine the outcome — the future of our country is not dependent on which party wins, it is dependent on individuals acting from a place of love and compassion.
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