Chin Up, Progressives, WE GOT THIS!
Don’t Let Media Predictions Fool You, The Democratic Primary is Far From Over (And Their Predictions Are Usually Wrong)
Don’t Let Media Predictions Fool You, The Democratic Primary is Far From Over (And Their Predictions Are Usually Wrong)
Progressives, I know you feel disheartened today. That’s how They want you to feel.
In this case, They are the conservative, Democratic Establishment, who, over the past 40 years, have been moving the Democratic Party steadily to the Right and increasingly protecting the interests of the wealthy.
They are also the people who are historically bad at winning presidential elections unless they can get a candidate who is well-spoken and seemingly progressive enough (Bill Clinton and Barack Obama).
Well-spoken and seemingly progressive are not the way honest people would describe Joe Biden, right?
But I don’t want to focus on Biden now. Don’t worry, we have time to get to him and we will.
No this article is about what we progressives must to do in order to help Bernie Sanders become the nominee for the Democratic Party and the president in 2021.
What we must do is ignore our hearts and use our heads.
Now, I know that is hard for you to do because it is hard for me. After all I am a guy who has cried several times when listening to this song (and I’m also healthy and strong enough to share that with no shame).
But there are times when using our hearts is best and times when using our heads is best.
And in order to beat Them, we are going to have use our heads.
Credit Good Game When Ya See It
They certainly used their heads this week. Give credit where it’s due, They pulled off a very deft, Machiavellian move when their candidates – Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, even Beto O’Rourke came back from the dead – all rallied behind Biden right before Super Tuesday (as podcaster Benjamin Dixon put it, “the Voltron of the Democratic Movement merged together to form Captain Moderate.”)
They also used a “media tsunami” from their friends in the corporate, oligarch-owned media to give Biden 72 million dollars in “earned media” coverage over the weekend.
And, judging by big turnaround for the previously struggling Biden campaign, it worked.
Hats off to them for the strategy.
Baseball Teaches Us: It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over
But here’s the deal progressives. This was Their best card and they were so desperate to stop Us and Bernie from running away with the race that they played it just to stay in the race.
Problem for Them, though, is they’ve now used that card and we’ve still got 2/3rd of the race to go. And won’t it be a joy to watch Bernie speak Truth to Power as he focuses on Biden in upcoming debates!
If you’ll forgive the baseball geek in me, I’d like to bring up last fall’s World Series and one of baseball’s most quotable legends to illustrate the theme of this article – it ain’t over ‘til it’s over.
In the 2019 World Series, the Houston Astros were the favorite and they had the home field advantage; in the best 4 of 7 series, they held the first two games at home and, if the Series went to games 6 and 7, the last two games at home.
Yet their opponents, the upstart Washington Nationals who didn’t even win their own division in the regular season, went down to Houston and did something very rare, they won those first two games.
So the media narrative flipped. Washington was the favorite. Houston had a big mountain to climb, they had to win two of three in Washington to keep the Series alive.
In Washington, Houston won all three. And the narrative flipped again; Houston was the clear favorite. Win one of two games at home, win the Series.
Well, I bet you can guess what happened. That’s right, Washington went to Houston and won both games and became world champs.
The point of all of that is that we modern people, and our media only reinforces this, sometimes get too caught up in the Moment and thus make over-confident predictions about the future.
The Same Overconfident Narratives Have Played Out in the 2020 Democratic Primary
One month ago, the media, including yours truly singing on my podcast about “the late, great” Joe Biden being “knocked out of the race” after the Iowa debacle, were calling for the hearse for Ol’ Joe.
In addition, the media narrative began to champion Buttigieg after he claimed victory with 0 percent of the vote officially counted.
After a close Sanders win in New Hampshire, the narrative was that, yeah, he won, but only because the moderate vote was split up between several candidates (this should have been a warning to us about the Volkan-into-Captain-Moderate move, but it wasn’t).
And then Bernie won Nevada and even the Democratic Establishment Network, er, MSNBC, was putting out feelers for more Bernie-friendly voices because Bernie was now the front-runner and they were scared they might become irrelevant in the case of a Sanders White House.
(Meanwhile, other hosts were suggesting that Bernie’s rise was akin to the Nazis overrunning France).
And now, it seems that it’s all over, Joe Biden is the Anointed One.
Do you see how silly it is to get caught in the Moment when making predictions?
Talking Stats and Strategy
What does this mean for progressives and how we should move forward?
Well, first you made need a moment. Take a day or two. Lick the wounds caused by Super Tuesday, do whatever Self Care works for you, and then get back into the fight.
Because it’s far from over. As of this writing (just past 11 p.m. EST, Wednseday 3/5), Biden is only ahead by 65 delegates with 2/3 of the race to go.
In addition, there are delegates left to be counted from Super Tuesday. 189 are in Sanders-strong states (California, Colorado and Utah), 73 in states that were reasonably close (Texas, Massachusetts and Minnesota) and 22 in Biden strongholds (Tennessee, North Carolina and Alabama). So that 65-delegate deficit may very well narrow before the next round of voting on Tuesday, March 10th.
I probably didn’t need to call up the Stats Nerd within me there, but the point is, Super Tuesday was basically a draw and we’ve got a dead heat on our hands.
Access and Arm the Warrior Within, Progressives!
One thing I admire about the so-called Bernie Bros is we are, in general, fighters. People who have been dealt some hard knocks by Life. Think about your life, have you been knocked down and given up? Sure, maybe temporarily.
But you are reading this which means you are still going.
And I’d hope if you’ve gotten this far, I’ve given you some well-reasoned, backed-by-the-stats and, yes, inspiring arguments for why we can take heart.
None of this is to say there isn’t much work to be done. Nothing ever worth fighting for comes easily. That’s just the way life goes.
But ask yourself this: What can I do to help our Movement? Use whatever power or resources you have.
For example, in my case, I can’t knock on doors during March because I live in Japan. But I can write blog posts, use social media and make podcasts. So that’s what I’m doing.
Oh, and if you can, donate some cash to the Sanders campaign. Personally, I like to have fun with numbers and their meaning, so I’ve been contributing $20.20 to the Sanders campaign every two months. (Because the meaning of two relates to the concept of Us.)
Point is, do what you can.
Now I want to close by asking you this: When all this is said and done, would you have rather done your best to make Sanders the nominee and had him lose or would you rather quit now, lose and then wonder in July if you could have done more?
Now, this latter move is something we humans do all the time. We create a future we don’t like and say, “Well, that’s just the way it is” and then when that reality happens we console ourselves by saying, “See I was right. There was nothing I could have done.”
Deep down, though, we know we are lying to ourselves, that we are justifying our lack of effort.
Do you really want to do that?
No, you don’t. You want to be a part of a team of people that is fighting hard for what they believe in.
And then, no matter the result, you will know you did your best. And … who knows? Maybe as you're participating in this fight you’ll meet someone who changes your life? A future spouse? A best friend? Or just a sense of community that you didn’t have before?
That’s why Bernie has often said this movement is not about him, it’s about US.
So take a deep breath, a day or two, and then brush yourself off and get your ass in gear and let’s get this done!
Because if we all do that, yes, it’s true:
WE. GOT. THIS!
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